Goalkeeping Tips, Tidbits and Random Thoughts

Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers

Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks. Huh? What in the world does that mean?

A forthcoming study shows that most goalkeepers will pick a side (based on reading the shooter, gut feel, or just plain guessing) and dive there, when in fact the optimal strategy is to stay in the middle and react—as I often advocate, especially for younger players.

So why then do goalkeepers pick a direction and dive? That's the title of the article. There is a bias towards "action": i.e., doing something. The thought is that if you're going to get scored on anyway, you might as well get scored on while trying hard than just standing there doing nothing. Certainly, a keeper who never moves while the ball goes into the corner of the net doesn't usually provoke a positive reaction from teammates or coach.

However, almost 30% of the 286 penalties included in the study were struck to the middle third of the net, and the goalkeeper's chance of saving such a shot is about 60%, versus about a 25-30% chance of saving a shot hit to one side even when the keeper dives the correct way. So why dive to the side at all? Because "an identical negative outcome (a goal being scored) is perceived to be worse when it follows inaction rather than action." In other words, keepers are biased towards action.

The upshot of all this? I think it supports my theory of stopping penalty kicks: don't guess and dive, read the shooter and get a feel for where you think the shot will go, get prepared to go that way, but don't go too soon and leave yourself some ability to react after the ball is struck. That strategy works quite successfully for me, and I've saved more than my fair share of penalties struck down the middle.

Labels: Penalty Kicks